연구보고서OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000
Long-Term Growth Scenarios
- 저자
- Johansson, Asa, Bagnoli, Philip, Bousquet, Guillaume, Guillemette, Yvan, Maisonneuve, Christine de la, Murtin, Fabrice, Nicoletti, Giuseppe, Spinelli, Francesca, Turner, David
- 청구기호
- WP 1000
- 발행사항
- France : OECD, 2013
- 형태사항
- 91 p. :. PDF file ;. 2,109 KB
- 키워드
- ALONG RUN, GROWTH, HUMAN CAPITAL, GLOBAL IMBALANCES, PRODUCTIVITY, FISCAL AND STRUCTURAL POLIVY, CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE, CURRENT ACCOUNTS, SAVING
- 바로가기
소장정보
위치 | 등록번호 | 청구기호 / 출력 | 상태 | 반납예정일 |
---|---|---|---|---|
이용 가능 (1) | ||||
E0001628 | 대출가능 | - |
이용 가능 (1)
- 등록번호
- E0001628
- 상태/반납예정일
- 대출가능
- -
- 위치/청구기호(출력)
책 소개
This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.