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연구보고서OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000

Long-Term Growth Scenarios

청구기호
WP 1000
발행사항
France : OECD, 2013
형태사항
91 p. :. PDF file ;. 2,109 KB
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위치등록번호청구기호 / 출력상태반납예정일
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책 소개
This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.